Can You Predict an Earthquake?

Natural disasters cannot be prevented, but their effects may be reduced if scientists can predict when they will occur and respond accordingly. You can predict the path of a hurricane and evacuate to prevent casualties, but can you predict an earthquake?

Earthquake prediction is not as advanced as hurricane prediction, but as technology improves and the bank of data on seismic waves and earthquakes grows, earthquake forecasting may become a more accurate science that society can depend on to save lives.

Factors Leading to Earthquakes

In order to predict an earthquake, scientists must first understand the events that cause an earthquake. If they’re able to do that, future networks may be able to predict earthquakes.

What Happens During an Earthquake

According to NASA, an earthquake is caused by movement in the earth’s crust. The earth’s crust is made of tectonic plates that are constantly shifting along the earth’s mantle. The movement of tectonic plates leads to cracks in the crust. These cracks are called faults. When tectonic plates move, they can cause movement in these faults. An earthquake is a sudden movement at a fault line.

For example, as explained by the US Geological Survey (USGS), the state of California is made up of two plates that meet at a plate boundary called the San Andreas Fault. Here, the plates grind up against each other constantly, which causes frequent earthquakes in the San Andreas Fault Zone.

The energy from the earthquake travels through seismic waves across the earth. If the earthquake magnitude is strong enough, those waves can be felt on the earth’s surface by humans and can cause destruction.

Why an Earthquake Is Dangerous

The seismic waves generated by tectonic plate movement can cause devastating effects. During a seismic event, the ground shakes, making it difficult to balance. If the waves have a high enough intensity, the ground motion can cause buildings and other man-made infrastructure to vibrate, which could potentially cause damage to buildings.

In addition to ground shaking, surface faulting can occur. Surface faulting is when two plates move against each other in a variety of ways. Like ground shaking, surface faulting can cause damage to infrastructure, which can cause injuries and casualties.

Earthquakes can also cause ground failure. This happens when a void is created, causing the earth’s surface to collapse. Some of these events can be catastrophic. According to USGS, ground failure in Katsu, China, in 1920 caused the death of over two hundred thousand people.

Ground failure is also at the root of landslides and tsunamis, both of which can also be catastrophic and cause many casualties. USGS notes an example from an earthquake in 1970 in Peru. The ground failure caused by the earthquake created a rock avalanche that resulted in the deaths of more than eighteen thousand people.

Where Earthquakes Are Most Likely to Happen

Earthquakes can occur anywhere on the earth’s surface, but according to USGS, there are three major zones where earthquake activity is most likely to occur. Those three zones are the Circum-Pacific seismic belt, the Alpide earthquake belt, and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

Eighty-one percent of the earth’s large earthquakes happen in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt, found along the rim of the Pacific Ocean. The belt lies along a series of plate boundaries where plates are sinking beneath other plates. The earthquakes are caused by slip between plates and plate rupture. ShakeMaps is a way to see how the ground is shaking in real time when seismic events happen in this zone.

The Alpide earthquake belt accounts for 17 percent of the earth’s large earthquakes. This zone extends through the Himalayas and the Mediterranean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean. Some of the most destructive earthquakes have happened here, including one in Indonesia in 2004 that killed over 230,000 people.

The Mid-Atlantic Ridge is located in the center of the Atlantic Ocean where two tectonic plates are moving away from each other. It is far from human development and deep underwater. However, it does cause earthquakes that can be detected in Iceland.

How Earthquakes Are Detected Today

Seismologists, using seismographs and other technology, can detect earthquakes as they happen by identifying and measuring the seismic waves caused by tectonic plate movement.

Technology Used to Detect Earthquakes

Seismographic networks around the world detect seismic waves and identify and measure earthquakes. These seismic stations use seismographs to measure the magnitude and intensity of the waves.

Magnitude measures the size of the earthquake; it is the same no matter where you are located in relation to the earthquake epicenter. It is the most common way to measure an earthquake. USGS currently uses the moment magnitude scale to measure magnitude. Intensity, on the other hand, measures the shaking and damage caused by the earthquake and will vary depending on your location.

How Earthquake Early Warning Systems Work

Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake monitoring technology to alert devices and people when an earthquake will affect their location. This advance notice allows people and systems to react and take action that could potentially save lives or avert damage to property. ShakeAlert is the earthquake early warning system made available by USGS for people in the United States.

These systems have sensors that detect seismic waves when they occur. The seismic data is then transferred to a processing center that determines the location, size, and estimated shaking of the quake. If appropriate, the system then sends out a message that is picked up by delivery partners, who can produce a notification to take protective action.

Currently, earthquake early warning systems can send out warnings only after seismic events have been detected and analyzed. Due to this, the lead time of these warnings is only seconds before the seismic event will strike the location. The expansion of the 5G network may open up possibilities for faster systems, but the 5G energy gap must be solved before these technologies can be fully utilized.

Where to Place Earthquake Detection Equipment

According to Maryland Geological Survey, equipment for detecting earthquakes should be placed in areas that have little ground vibration. This means they should be far from any urban centers and ideally as far from any man-made activities as possible. Most human activity creates vibrations that can be picked up as seismic vibrations. Car traffic, air traffic, foot traffic, construction, and even wind can interfere with detecting earthquakes.

Technology Currently Used in the Field for Tracking Earthquakes

Technology for detecting earthquakes has come far. The technology currently used is much more advanced than it was in the past. Recent improvements in areas such as big data and artificial intelligence have played a key role in these changes.

How Technology Used to Track Earthquakes Has Changed and Improved

Earthquake detection has traditionally been achieved using the seismograph. A seismograph is the instrument that records the motion of the ground during an earthquake, and the seismometer is the internal device that detects the ground motion.

Seismometers were originally analog. Information had to be converted to a digital format at a data processing point. Today, seismometers are digital and can process data at the site of the seismic station. The data is then sent out to be stored. This method has some benefits: data is provided at scale for small and large earthquakes, can be checked for errors, and can more easily be incorporated centrally.

The speed of detection and the ability to compute and send data nearly instantly, especially with increasing 5G deployment, has also allowed for earthquake early warning systems to develop. It’s now possible to warn people, devices, and systems of approaching ground motion seconds in advance of its arrival. This allows people and systems to respond and take action that could prevent damage to infrastructure or individuals.

How Technology Used to Track Earthquakes Was Developed

The analog seismometer detected ground motion and recorded it as a squiggle along a line that remains straight when there is no seismic motion. As technology progressed, this became possible to do digitally. Seismometers can now detect seismic waves electronically, and the recording that the seismograph takes is more accurate than with analog devices. GPS has also been used to help understand earthquakes.

With the digital seismometer, larger banks of data have been developed, improving understanding of earthquakes and allowing increased analysis.

How a Seismometer Works

A seismometer is the mechanism that detects ground motion. It is typically a pendulum or a mass mounted on a spring that will be affected by seismic waves. The seismograph records the movement of the seismometer.

Seismographs process the data detected by the seismometer to determine the magnitude and intensity of the earthquake. Data from multiple seismic stations is analyzed to determine the origin of the earthquake.

Latest Developing Technology that May Assist in Predicting Earthquakes

Outside of seismic technology, advances in other scientific fields could potentially assist in earthquake forecasting.

Technology Needed for More Accurate Earthquake Prediction

Two important technologies that would assist in earthquake prediction are historical data and artificial intelligence. According to USGS, three elements must be defined in order to predict an earthquake. Those three elements are the date and time, the location, and the magnitude. USGS and other organizations are working on developing accurate and dependable methods and models for earthquake forecasting.

Historical data that has been collected over time and the ongoing collection of data contribute to increased accuracy of predictions. The more data is collected, the more accurate and consistent predictions will be. Artificial intelligence uses data to build algorithms that can predict earthquakes. Still, scientists have not been able to accurately predict an earthquake. They are unable to determine all the elements that USGS defines as required (date and time, location, and magnitude). As they gather more data, algorithms will be further refined to make better predictions.

Organizations Developing Technology for Predicting Earthquakes

A number of government organizations and nongovernmental scientific organizations are working toward developing accurate and consistent earthquake predictions. The USGS created the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council to provide recommendations to USGS on earthquake prediction and related scientific research.

USGS also collaborates with smaller research centers that are working on improving the ability to predict earthquakes. One of those centers is the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The mission of SCEC is to promote research in earthquake predictability, help governing bodies assess the feasibility of earthquake prediction, and reduce controversy around earthquake prediction.

Advances in Other Scientific Fields Helping the Development of Earthquake Prediction Technology

Advances in data analytics and artificial intelligence could make it possible to predict when and where an earthquake will strike. These technologies will continue to advance. Artificial intelligence will use the data that seismologists continue to record to create better algorithms for predicting earthquakes. Organizations like SCEC have set out to promote research in these areas and evaluate earthquake prediction models and algorithms.

Communications technology also provides the ability to share earthquake predictions more widely and quickly.

The Future of Earthquake Prediction

Trends are moving toward a combination of technologies, such as artificial intelligence and cloud-based technology. Because natural disasters cannot be avoided, a system for better response and restoration arrangements in the case of an earthquake is vital.

One tool to assist in learning more about earthquake prediction is the IEEE Xplore digital library. This is one of the world’s largest collections of technical literature in engineering, computer science, and related technologies, with five million documents now available in its repository. You can use this reference to research earthquake prediction in more depth.

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